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Nate Silver Challenge: July Update




Well, it’s been about one month since I called out Nate Silver (If you’re not sure what I’m talking about, check out my original post here: http://www.kenflerlage.com/2016/07/im-calling-out-nate-silver.html. When I published my first set of projections, my map looked exactly like Mr. Silver’s. I see that he has been busy this month, regularly updating his projections based on new information, while I’ve been sitting back, relaxing by the pool, enjoying summer.

But it’s now the end of July and the conventions are over, so it’s time to publish my July update. I’ve only made two changes to my projections this month—I have moved North Carolina from Trump to Clinton and Nevada from Clinton to Trump. These are both very tight races, but current polls indicate that these have changed hands. No other changes this month. My current projections are as follows.

Clinton – California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin

Trump – Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming


As of the time of this post, there are four differences between my projections and Nate Silver’s: Nevada, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida. Note: This year, Nate Silver is actually doing three models. I’m comparing to his “Polls Plus” model which takes into account polls, historical information, and the state of the economy.


Reminder: You can interact with my current election map on Tableau Public: https://public.tableau.com/profile/ken.flerlage#!/vizhome/Election2016_7/Election2016. And you can view Silver’s projections on FiveThirtyEight: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus.

I’ll see you again in August!

Ken Flerlage, July 29, 2016




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